As millions of Americans prepare to gather around tables laden with turkey and carbohydrates this Thanksgiving, our data scientists at Windsock have been doing what we do best: digging through aviation data to find patterns nobody asked us to find.
We analyzed over 100,000 FAA accident narratives spanning 45 years, searching for Thanksgiving-related terms: turkey, thanksgiving, holiday, family gathering, pilgrim, cranberry, stuffing, gravy, tryptophan, black friday, in-laws, and yes even "stretchy pants."
The results are gobble-smacking.
In 1985, turkey-adjacent incidents represented 0.61 per 1,000 total accidents.
By 2017? A staggering 4.15—a nearly seven-fold increase.
Our leading hypothesis: wild turkey populations have exploded to 6.9 million in North America, and these intelligent, vengeful birds have organized a coordinated campaign against general aviation. We think not coincidentally timed for November.
Okay, the keyword trend is probably just accident narratives getting more detailed over time. But then we looked at the actual calendar data and something genuinely interesting emerged.
We calculated the exact Thanksgiving date for every year from 1980 to 2024 and counted accidents during the three-day holiday window: Wednesday, Thursday, and Black Friday.
The absolute numbers dropped dramatically; from 23 holiday weekend accidents in the 1980s down to 7 recently. Great news.
But here's the thing: the rate has remained stubbornly consistent at ~6.5 per 1,000 for four straight decades. The holiday effect hasn't budged, even as everything else got safer. Some years are genuine outliers—1994 hit 11.57, 2009 saw 10.23, and 2021 recorded 9.80.
What's going on? Rushed flight planning to "make it home." Pressure from passengers who don't understand weather. Unfamiliar weight and balance with a full cabin. The data suggests the Thanksgiving travel window genuinely deserves extra caution.
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